Who wants to see the killer killer whale?
Posted on | March 1, 2010 | No Comments
Author:
Jason Voiovich
Ecra Creative Group
Key Points:
1. The death of orca trainer Dawn Brancheau at the Orlando Seaworld theme park speaks to the danger of working closely with these whales.
2. Our first instinct might be to think the net economic effect of the accident would be profoundly negative on Seaworld – people would not want to visit the park.
3. But I am not sure that will be true – behavioral psychology seems to indicate that for this type of tragedy, park visits may actually increase.
By now, we all know the story.
On February 24, 2010, in front of an auditorium of horrified onlookers at Seaworld’s Orlando theme park, the massive alpha male orca whale “Tilikum” pulled veteran trainer Dawn Brancheau underwater by her ponytail, shaking her violently in his jaws.
She was pronounced dead shortly thereafter.
Of course, there is the human tragedy. Our sympathies must go out to Dawn’s immediate family and her extended family of fellow trainers. And of course, there is a systemic tragedy. Seaworld officials must now reconstruct the circumstances leading up to the accident in order to try to find ways to minimize future risk. Certainly, there is a tragedy for those who witnessed the event – children especially – who must search for their own way to rationalize the horror they saw. Finally, there is what will become of the giant (and now thrice identified human-killer) male orca. For now, he stays.
But as important as all of those questions are, and how they must take primacy, there is one last question, this one for Seaworld the business: What will this tragedy mean for attendance figures at the Orlando theme park?
The Florida tourism industry is fiercely competitive; will visitors choose a Disney park instead? More problematic for the business, will visitors shy away from other Seaworld parks in other areas of the country?
Our snap judgement may be to answer, “Yes”, visitors are likely to be turned off by an accident like this, and will choose another destination for their vacation. People choose a Seaworld to escape from the drudgery – and the horror – of everyday life. Dawn’s death at the hands of a (supposedly) trained orca is a stark reminder of what tourists would want to avoid.
But I am not certain our immediate assessment is correct.
A couple of quick observations: First, albeit sadly, Seaworld has garnered significant free publicity. More specifically, coverage has focused attention on the training and handling of the theme park’s stay attraction – the strikingly beautiful orca whales and the park’s signature “Believe” show. Both search volume and news tracking volume confirm what we already have experienced in popular media.
Second, again sadly, a story like this breaks the clutter of everyday news. Job losses, health care reform, war, and politics – important certainly, but we can get lost in the everyday monotony. But the thought of an eight ton whale dragging a trainer to her death has a way of gripping the mind – and the news cycle.
But I think we can better understand the economic effect of accidents on theme parks and vacation destinations using this handy thought model I’ve assembled regarding the perception of danger stemming from the accident situation.
On the y (vertical) axis, we chart the perceived excitement or novelty of the danger the accident caused from “low” to “high”. Next, on the x (horizontal) axis, we chart the perceived likelihood of that dangerous situation happening to you personally. In both cases perception is critical, not a rational calculation of risk factors.
When we do that, a four-part grid emerges that can help us understand not only what might happen at Seaworld, but the economic impact of other accidents as well.
In the bottom left quadrant, we have a low perceived novelty level of the danger as well as a low perceived likelihood the same fate might befall us. An example might be a “slip and fall” incident. The predicted net effect would be a collective “ho-hum”; an accident in this category would be unlikely to materially impact attendance.
Let’s move to the opposite extreme in the top right corner: A highly tantalizing accident with a high perceived likelihood of finding yourself in the same position. A roller coaster derailment is a keen example. The thought of plunging 10 stories to your demise in a tiny train car will get your attention. And it is not as if you haven’t ridden that roller coaster. It could happen! But for all the perceived risk, the net predicted effect would be neutral as well. And this is what we see with theme park accidents of this type – they repel one type of person and attract another.
Move straight down (to the bottom left quadrant) and we get relatively boring “accidents” where there is a strong perceived risk of personally experiencing the problem. I think this can help explain the stress on cruise ship attendance whenever there is an outbreak of food borne illness on ship. The stomach flu is no fun to experience, but isn’t out of the realm of consciousness for most people; add to that the high perceived likelihood that you’ll manage to pick up the virus on a confined cruise ship, and you get a classic avoidance response. Prediction: Net decrease in attendance.
Finally, we get to the top left quadrant of the chart, the place where I believe Seaworld’s accident falls. As discussed, an orca attack is highly unusual and spectacular, but the chance you personally will be dragged into the water is quite low (unless you’re the blindingly stupid fool who decided to take an after hours swim in an orca tank in Canada a few years back). In other words, there is a sort of voyeuristic effect: We want to have a chance to witness something like that. Net predicted effect: An attendance boost.
It’s why we watch horror movies. It’s why we slow down to gawk when we see a crash on the freeway. It’s why were glued to our television during a natural disaster.
For good or for ill, that just seems to be how we’re wired.
Of course, under no circumstances, should this thought model be interpreted as prescriptive of how to boost theme park attendance, but it does indicate that Seaworld doesn’t need to worry about short-term economics.
I think Seaworld has other concerns on its mind right now. As it should.
Related Links:
Seaworld Information
Seaworld Blog
ACS Killer Whale Facts
Tags: Dawn Brancheau > economic imapct of accidents > orca > Seaworld
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About
Jason Voiovich
Ecra Creative Group
Phone: 651.209.2778
Principal and co-founder of Ecra Creative Group, a Minneapolis, MN based creative services firm specializing in brand development, reputation process management, naming/trademark, and product launches to drive measurable business results.
